Online brokerage stocks could be signaling trouble ahead for broader market, economy

Westends61 | Getty Images

A sell-off in online brokerage stocks such as Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade could be signaling trouble is ahead for the market and the economy. At the very least, they are indicating the Federal Reserve could be set to pause its interest rate increases, given the industry’s sensitivity to the central bank’s moves.

“They are early movers when it comes to a bear market or a recession,” said Richard Repetto, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill, in an interview.

“E-broker stocks generally price in Fed rate changes about 18 months in advance,” he added.

Charles Schwab shares are down 27 percent in the last six months, while TD Ameritrade and E*TRADE stocks are off by 18 percent and 31 percent respectively. Online broker stocks have dropped by 9 percent on average in December so far, compared to the 4 percent selloff in S&P 500.

If their moves are any guide to the direction of of the fed funds rate, they are predicting fewer rate hikes in the coming year, according to Repetto, who showed the correlation in a research note to clients. Since the Fed would reverse course in an economic slowdown, the group could be signaling more than just a pause in rate hikes.

Online brokers’ stock performance responds to rate changes because brokers usually profit directly form higher interest rates.

“Now all these guys have banks or bank-like structures. They earn a spread on the cash people leave on their account. When the fed funds rate goes up by 25 basis points, they only pay clients an extra 10 basis points and earn incrementally the extra 15 basis points,” Repetto explained.

Additionally, the margin loan rate investors pay to borrow from the brokerage also generally go up in line with the rising interest rates, he said.

To be sure, although markets have slashed their expectations following the stock market turmoil over the past two months, they are still foreseeing a 78 percent chance of a hike next week and a 38 percent probability of a rate increase in 2019, according to the CME’s tracker.

[“source=forbes]

Tech IPO candidates for 2019 aren’t yet deterred by market volatility, JPMorgan vice chairman says

 

JPMorgan Vice Chairman says 2019 IPO candidates have not yet been impacted by market volatility

JPMorgan Vice Chairman says 2019 IPO candidates have not yet been impacted by market volatility   8 Hours Ago | 04:44

Despite the recent market volatility that’s pushed the S&P 500 down 8 percent since mid-September, technology companies headed for the IPO markets have yet to adjust their plans, according to Noah Wintroub, vice chairman at J.P. Morgan Chase who oversees tech investment banking in San Francisco.

“At J.P. Morgan we haven’t seen anybody change their view of their timing or expectations based on the markets,” said Wintroub, in an interview with CNBC on Monday from the firm’s [r]Evolution conference, which is focused on private and public technology companies. “We’ll continue to see what happens in 2019, what happens on a macro basis, what the market is doing, and if the market is super volatile, people may change their plans.”

Wintroub said that there’s generally about a six-month lag from the time a company decides to go public and the actual IPO, and in that time conditions can certainly change. But for larger more established companies, those swings tend to be a “little less relevant” than for smaller companies with less mature businesses, he said.

Next year is gearing up to be a banner year for tech IPOs, with Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, Pinterest and Slack all indicating that they may be preparing for upcoming debuts. On Thursday, Lyft said it had filed a confidential prospectus, setting the stage for an IPO. CNBC reported in October that Lyft hired J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse and Jefferies to manage the deal, which is expected to take place in early 2019.

WePay CEO Bill Clerico speaks with J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

Source: Nghi Cao
WePay CEO Bill Clerico speaks with J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

Wintroub declined to speak about specific clients.

He said tech’s position in the spotlight this year has marked a “critical moment for our community.” Privacy and safety concerns, platform manipulation and the #MeToo movement have all hit the industry, and employees at companies including Google and Facebook have been vocal in protesting certain practices by their employers.

“When you are doing great things but have a lot of power concentrated, we have to be careful about how we build our communities, how we empower other people and how we’re conscious of the impact we have,” Wintroub said.

[“source=cnbc”]

The FAANG stocks shed $140 billion in Tuesday’s market rout

Jeff Bezos

April Greer | The Washington Post | Getty Images
Jeff Bezos

Tech stocks are back in correction territory after a painful day for public exchanges.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index fell nearly 4 percent, with tech stocks like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook weighing most heavily.

We're bullish long-term on Apple stock, says Michael Bapis

We’re bullish long-term on Apple stock, says Michael Bapis   17 Hours Ago | 03:17

In total, the so-called FAANG stocks — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet-owned Google — shed more than $140 billion in market value by the end of the trading Tuesday.

Here’s how it shook out:

  • Facebook fell 2.2 percent, losing $7.6 billion in implied market value
  • Amazon fell 5.9 percent, losing $50.8 billion in implied market value
  • Apple fell 4.4 percent, losing $38.5 billion in implied market value
  • Netflix fell 5.2 percent, losing $6.5 billion in implied market value
  • Alphabet fell 4.8 percent, losing $37.5 billion in implied market value

The losses extend pain periods for Apple, which has seen downturn in recent weeks, and Facebook, which is suffering a down year on the heels of several scandals. Amazon and Netflix, though, are each up more than 40 percent year-to-date despite getting caught in the rout.

With Tuesday’s losses, Alphabet is hanging onto modest year-to-date gains, up just 0.8 percent in 2018.

[“source=cnbc”]

Money managers are realizing that Trump isn’t ‘dependable enough’ for the market: Cramer

Trump not 'dependable enough' for market, money managers learn: Cramer

Trump not ‘dependable enough’ for market, money managers learn: Cramer   13 Hours Ago | 01:17

Part of Tuesday’s stock market plunge may have stemmed from money managers giving up on getting clarity from President Donald Trump and his administration on their policies, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said as stocks settled.

“We have maximum uncertainty. That makes people want to sell. That’s how money managers view the situation,” the “Mad Money” host said after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day nearly 800 points lower.

Over the weekend, Trump struck a cease-fire on trade with President Xi Jinping of China at the G-20 summit in Argentina. According to the White House, the two leaders agreed to postpone the Trump administration’s planned tariff hike from 10 to 25 percent for 90 days starting Dec. 1.

But while one White House camp — namely top economic advisor Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — seem optimistic about the prospect of a deal, U.S. Trade Representative and known China hawk Robert Lighthizer has emerged as a leading candidate for running the negotiations.

That sets up a battle between those who want a deal and those who would rather see China shed the title of global superpower, Cramer said.

“The president seems to actually enjoy these face-offs. They’ve become his style. The White House is the Thunderdome: two policies enter, one policy leaves,” the “Mad Money” host said. “But the markets crave certainty, which means they hate this kind of master-blaster, Mad Max confrontation.”

As a result, professional money managers — whose jobs call for predicting how certain policies will impact their investments — “feel like they’ve been had,” Cramer said.

“This is not some reality show, for heaven’s sake. It’s real life: real jobs on the line, [a] real economy at stake. While the president had a huge hit with ‘The Apprentice,’ governing the most powerful nation on earth is more serious than going to the top floor to learn who’s been fired,” he said.

“I think it’s starting to dawn on major-league money managers that … maybe they misjudged [the president]. Maybe he simply doesn’t take this stuff seriously enough to be considered dependable, even as what really matters [to his base] is the ratings, or the equivalent of [them], which means the White House version of ‘The Apprentice.'”

To make matters worse, Cramer worried that the Federal Reserve was back on autopilot, content with ignoring slowdown indicators and talking up the job market so it could push through its widely expected December interest rate hike.

But with the bond market doing what it tends to do before recessions, another rate hike could “push us over the edge,” the “Mad Money” host warned, saying that the Fed’s more optimistic members “sound like they’ve lost their minds.”

“The Fed isn’t thinking about how Toll Brothers just told us they had the lowest orders in the house business [in] four years. They aren’t thinking about stores with no cashiers like Jeff Bezos is. They aren’t debating what the cloud does to white-collar employment … [or] what Ford and GM are doing to blue-collar employment,” Cramer said. “They’re simply saying, ‘Friday’s employment number is going to be very strong and we don’t like to … look like we’re soft on wage inflation.'”

So, between the White House policy battles and the Fed’s insistence on following through on its interest rate raises, many stock-pickers and money managers feel like they’ve been left to their own devices, he explained.

“The bottom line is this: the president’s worrying people, the Fed is worrying people, and yet, somehow, they both think they’re being reassuring,” Cramer said. “They couldn’t be more wrong.”

[“source=cnbc”]

Money managers are realizing that Trump isn’t ‘dependable enough’ for the market: Cramer

 

Trump not 'dependable enough' for market, money managers learn: Cramer

Trump not ‘dependable enough’ for market, money managers learn: Cramer   13 Hours Ago | 01:17

Part of Tuesday’s stock market plunge may have stemmed from money managers giving up on getting clarity from President Donald Trump and his administration on their policies, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said as stocks settled.

“We have maximum uncertainty. That makes people want to sell. That’s how money managers view the situation,” the “Mad Money” host said after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day nearly 800 points lower.

Over the weekend, Trump struck a cease-fire on trade with President Xi Jinping of China at the G-20 summit in Argentina. According to the White House, the two leaders agreed to postpone the Trump administration’s planned tariff hike from 10 to 25 percent for 90 days starting Dec. 1.

But while one White House camp — namely top economic advisor Larry Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — seem optimistic about the prospect of a deal, U.S. Trade Representative and known China hawk Robert Lighthizer has emerged as a leading candidate for running the negotiations.

That sets up a battle between those who want a deal and those who would rather see China shed the title of global superpower, Cramer said.

“The president seems to actually enjoy these face-offs. They’ve become his style. The White House is the Thunderdome: two policies enter, one policy leaves,” the “Mad Money” host said. “But the markets crave certainty, which means they hate this kind of master-blaster, Mad Max confrontation.”

As a result, professional money managers — whose jobs call for predicting how certain policies will impact their investments — “feel like they’ve been had,” Cramer said.

“This is not some reality show, for heaven’s sake. It’s real life: real jobs on the line, [a] real economy at stake. While the president had a huge hit with ‘The Apprentice,’ governing the most powerful nation on earth is more serious than going to the top floor to learn who’s been fired,” he said.

“I think it’s starting to dawn on major-league money managers that … maybe they misjudged [the president]. Maybe he simply doesn’t take this stuff seriously enough to be considered dependable, even as what really matters [to his base] is the ratings, or the equivalent of [them], which means the White House version of ‘The Apprentice.'”

To make matters worse, Cramer worried that the Federal Reserve was back on autopilot, content with ignoring slowdown indicators and talking up the job market so it could push through its widely expected December interest rate hike.

But with the bond market doing what it tends to do before recessions, another rate hike could “push us over the edge,” the “Mad Money” host warned, saying that the Fed’s more optimistic members “sound like they’ve lost their minds.”

“The Fed isn’t thinking about how Toll Brothers just told us they had the lowest orders in the house business [in] four years. They aren’t thinking about stores with no cashiers like Jeff Bezos is. They aren’t debating what the cloud does to white-collar employment … [or] what Ford and GM are doing to blue-collar employment,” Cramer said. “They’re simply saying, ‘Friday’s employment number is going to be very strong and we don’t like to … look like we’re soft on wage inflation.'”

So, between the White House policy battles and the Fed’s insistence on following through on its interest rate raises, many stock-pickers and money managers feel like they’ve been left to their own devices, he explained.

“The bottom line is this: the president’s worrying people, the Fed is worrying people, and yet, somehow, they both think they’re being reassuring,” Cramer said. “They couldn’t be more wrong.”

[“source=cnbc”]